Tips to survive a power outage or blackout. Body+Soul Daily. How weather can affect your mental state, mood and behaviour. Astha Gupta. The interface between climate and tourism is multifaceted and complex Based on an emerging understanding of the relationship between weather and precipitation) and advice on what to wear and health-related issues. Climate is generally defined as average weather, and as such, climate change and weather are intertwined. Observations can show that there have been.
Some aspects of climate change may already be irreversible. Yet many scientists believe that by taking positive action now, it is possible to slow the pace of climate change and reduce further global warming.
Changing our lifestyle and our behaviour will help reduce the human impact on the environment. We can all make a difference to climate change. Here are some suggestions for a healthier, more sustainable approach to living in our environment. Reduce car emissions Leave the car in the garage and walk or cycle for short trips. Keep your car tyres inflated to the recommended pressure.
Drive slowly and smoothly. Reduce energy expenditure in your home Suggestions include: Turn off lights and appliances when not in use. Replace regular light bulbs with compact fluorescent bulbs. Insulate your home and reduce your heating and cooling bills. Install a water-saving showerhead and take shorter showers. Dry your clothes outside on the line rather than in the clothes dryer. Buy local and seasonal food produce to reduce energy use in transport and storage.
Trends in Extreme Weather Events since 1900 An Enduring Conundrum for Wise Policy Advice
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Buy a more fuel-efficient car or think about not owning a car — perhaps you can share one. View PDF Download PDF Abstract It is widely promulgated and believed that human-caused global warming comes with increases in both the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. A survey of official weather sites and the scientific literature provides strong evidence that the first half of the 20th century had more extreme weather than the second half, when anthropogenic global warming is claimed to have been mainly responsible for observed climate change.
What is the appropriate basis on which to make judgements when theory and data are in such disagreement? Keywords Global warming; Weather; Climate change Introduction There have been many reports on the future impacts of humanrelated greenhouse gas emissions on a changing climate during the 21st century.
Just two will suffice here: Both reports dwell on the expectation that in future, because of man-made global warming, we can expect extremes of weather to be both more intense and more frequent. By implication, one must allocate vast sums of money in mitigating and adapting to this future of more extreme weather. The members of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in Working Group I are clear that man-made global warming started in earnest in aboutso it is reasonable to see to what extent the weather has been getting more extreme more frequently over the last 55 years.
That same report suggests that IPCC scientists have low confidence in recent extreme weather events being specifically attributed to global warming [ 3 ].
The graphical data is not shown in SREX, as it is here, but a one-phrase summary is incorporate. Furthermore, they chose definitions of extremes that represent the upper or lower deciles of occurrence, rather than treating extremes as extremes, as is considered here. It is therefore surprising to discover that by all the various real world data considered here, the weather in the first half of the 20th century was, if anything, more extreme than in the second half.
I have not found any data, including in SREX, that contradicts these trends. Furthermore there are no signs of this trend changing i. The lack of public, political and policymaker appreciation of the disconnect between empirical data and theoretical constructs is profoundly worrying, especially in terms of policy advice being given.
For example the first report cited above is without empirical foundation, the second is misleading, and the already modest claims in SREX are further weakened when compared with the longer term data.
A comment on etymology is in order: I am using the word extreme in the same way that the authors of references [ 12 ] to mean events that are several standard deviations away from the average of the distribution by which they are measured and described. I am not referring to the ultimate extreme in recorded history, although these would also support my case. The approach taken in this paper is wherever possible to list the original source research yielding the data, but where that is not available to use the earliest accessible details.
Not all the relevant data is located in the regular scientific literature. Much of this data is on official government-backed meteorological websites, while other data is only available secondarily or appears in appropriately derived form in various web-sites devoted to critiques in the global warming debate. To my knowledge, this material has not before been gathered systematically in the manner it has here. By referring to a much broader base than temperature data only, I hope to avoid the continuing debate on the myriad of adjustments made to original data that has almost without exception exacerbated the trends being sought, particularly in rising temperature over the 20th century.
These adjustments are such that in some places e. New Zealand the inferred temperature rise is entirely a result of these post-hoc adjustments. Where the Weather is shown to have been Less Extreme Recently Figure 1 is a collage of data that make the case that weather was more extreme between and than since.
It has been collected from the literature and from websites since the beginning of For each of these diagrams there are many more that make the same story with complementary detail, or with data from other parts of the world. This section is devoted to explaining the origin and content of each graph. The first graph takes the HADCRUT4 data set and plots the time derivative of the globally averaged mean surface temperature from to the present day [ 7 ]. It shows that the periods of maximum warming or cooling rates are all in the 19th century or at the start of the 20th century.
Since the recent period of global warming started in there has been a quiescent temperature profile. As the author states: Instead, the natural climate responds with negative feedbacks to bring the climate back to some level of short-term equilibrium.
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By contrast the SREX report on extreme temperatures is largely down to two key papers [ 56 ]. Warm maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to track with the overall average temperature [ 5 ] in the Americas, but the broadening is weak, and the extremes are eclipsed by data from the s.
Furthermore both positive and negative trends are present in the temperature extremes in different regions in the global data [ 6 ], so that the total extremes have some internal cancellation.
The findings also were that the total precipitation was not changing but there was a weak tendency towards more extreme single incidents of precipitation.
Nonetheless, where extreme precipitation has actually been measured, nearly all the extremes predate this period for all periods less than one year [ 9 ].
Most recently, a report confirms that fluctuations in extreme weather events especially temperatures become less severe with rising average temperatures [ 10 ]. The second chart is a plot of NOAA monthly measurements of precipitation sincethrough June [ 11 ]. The black dots represent the moving 5-year month average of atmospheric CO2 levels. The dark blue curve is the simple month moving average of precipitation; the red line denotes the average monthly rainfall over the 1, months.
The moving average and the average since are almost identical, and show that any recent suggestions of climate extremes from one-off events in the USA are not borne out by the accumulated data. The third and fifth charts show the steady decline on average of both the frequency and power of hurricanes making landfall in the USA over the 20th century [ 12 ].
The fourth panel shows the fall in the annual cost of flooding in the USA as a function of the Gross domestic product of the USA [ 14 ]. The sixth panel shows that extremes of temperature in the USA were greatest in the s, and much greater than anything different [ 15 ].
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The seventh panel shows the actual decline in precipitation in Boston since compared with the predicted increase from the average of many models, showing a discrepancy in the sign of the change [ 16 ], which must be a contributory factor in the wider search for an answer to the question about whether or not extreme weather is on the increase. The final panel summarises a key issue that is not often considered in the debate: There are multiple causes of this decrease — better warnings, more robust defences being just two.
In the next section we describe data from many other places in the world showing that there has been no change in the frequency or severity of extreme weather events. Much of this is from the UK where, as for the US, has extensive networks exist for gathering relevant data over the whole period.
A separate table is introduced below to summarise the scattered reports from other parts of the world. There is much Evidence of No Change over Years Figure 2 is a similar collage to that in Figure 1, but showing aspects of extreme weather events that seem to be constant over the last years. This was claimed to be the worst ever and just the sort of thing that climate change should bring.
In fact the first chart shows the peak water flow past Kingston on Thames for the last years, and the red line marks the peak flow inwhich was exceeded several times over that period. Indeed all these other more extreme events occurred before